Preseason Rankings
UNC Greensboro
Southern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#86
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.7#323
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#119
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.1% 39.0% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.3% 4.6% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 13.4
.500 or above 96.6% 97.1% 87.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 97.3% 92.1%
Conference Champion 42.7% 43.6% 26.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.8% 1.9% 0.9%
First Round37.0% 37.9% 20.1%
Second Round10.7% 11.1% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.5% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 95.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.3 - 1.90.3 - 1.9
Quad 1b0.6 - 0.90.9 - 2.8
Quad 21.6 - 1.32.5 - 4.1
Quad 34.8 - 2.07.3 - 6.1
Quad 414.3 - 1.421.6 - 7.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 347   @ N.C. A&T W 79-58 95%    
  Nov 09, 2018 46   @ LSU L 68-72 25%    
  Nov 13, 2018 197   @ UNC Wilmington W 76-68 67%    
  Nov 19, 2018 297   Prairie View W 77-64 93%    
  Nov 23, 2018 239   @ Delaware W 70-60 73%    
  Nov 24, 2018 141   Louisiana Tech W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 01, 2018 3   @ Kentucky L 63-76 8%    
  Dec 07, 2018 231   @ Elon W 72-62 72%    
  Dec 12, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 74-54 98%    
  Dec 15, 2018 340   North Alabama W 74-55 97%    
  Dec 18, 2018 149   Radford W 65-60 75%    
  Dec 22, 2018 322   @ Samford W 80-64 86%    
  Dec 29, 2018 314   Chattanooga W 71-56 93%    
  Jan 05, 2019 310   @ VMI W 73-59 83%    
  Jan 10, 2019 97   Wofford W 68-67 63%    
  Jan 12, 2019 123   Furman W 69-66 68%    
  Jan 17, 2019 307   @ Western Carolina W 74-60 82%    
  Jan 19, 2019 153   @ East Tennessee St. W 67-62 56%    
  Jan 24, 2019 265   The Citadel W 85-73 89%    
  Jan 26, 2019 272   Mercer W 70-58 88%    
  Jan 31, 2019 310   VMI W 73-59 93%    
  Feb 07, 2019 322   Samford W 80-64 94%    
  Feb 09, 2019 314   @ Chattanooga W 71-56 84%    
  Feb 14, 2019 123   @ Furman W 69-66 48%    
  Feb 16, 2019 97   @ Wofford W 68-67 44%    
  Feb 21, 2019 307   Western Carolina W 74-60 92%    
  Feb 24, 2019 153   East Tennessee St. W 67-62 74%    
  Feb 28, 2019 265   @ The Citadel W 85-73 76%    
  Mar 02, 2019 272   @ Mercer W 70-58 77%    
Projected Record 21.6 - 7.4 13.9 - 4.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.4 10.1 12.7 10.4 4.3 42.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.6 8.5 6.3 1.9 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.2 5.5 2.1 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.5 2.4 0.6 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.3 6.8 9.9 12.5 15.0 16.5 14.6 10.4 4.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.3    4.3
17-1 100.0% 10.4    9.8 0.6
16-2 86.9% 12.7    9.9 2.8 0.0
15-3 61.3% 10.1    5.5 4.1 0.5 0.0
14-4 29.2% 4.4    1.6 2.2 0.6 0.0
13-5 6.6% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.7% 42.7 31.3 9.9 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.3% 90.6% 76.7% 13.9% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 59.5%
17-1 10.4% 77.0% 67.0% 10.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.0 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 30.3%
16-2 14.6% 60.8% 54.6% 6.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.7 13.6%
15-3 16.5% 43.1% 41.7% 1.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.4 2.5%
14-4 15.0% 30.8% 30.6% 0.2% 13.5 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 10.3 0.3%
13-5 12.5% 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.1 9.8 0.0%
12-6 9.9% 17.3% 17.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 8.2
11-7 6.8% 10.3% 10.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 6.1
10-8 4.3% 8.1% 8.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3.9
9-9 2.9% 5.8% 5.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
8-10 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 38.1% 35.3% 2.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.9 4.8 8.6 8.4 5.4 3.0 1.1 61.9 4.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.5 0.8 8.5 32.1 55.6 2.3 0.8